My research quantifies the risk of spread and establishment of insect vectors and plant pests under current and future climate conditions.
The central objective is to develop probabilistic frameworks integrating insect movement, climate suitability, and uncertainty to support evidence-based pest risk assessment.
The work addresses the growing threat of invasive pests and vector-borne diseases to agriculture, food security, and ecosystem health in northern Europe, particularly Finland. By improving estimates of dispersal and establishment likelihood, it contributes to proactive surveillance, contingency planning, and risk management.
Methodologically, I use Bayesian statistical models to synthesize heterogeneous data such as pest occurrence records, dispersal observations, ecological traits, and climate variables and coupling climate suitability models with stratified dispersal models.
